Has firefighter pay kept up with inflation?
Pick a role and a starting year and see what every pay award since then was really worth: pay in today's money, the gap to pay that matched prices, and a share-ready summary. Pay comes from the published NJC circulars and prices from the Office for National Statistics.
Pay versus inflation
Inflation: ONS CPI series D7BT, released 16 September 2026. Prices are July of each year; today's money means July 2026 prices.
A competent firefighter is now paid 10.6% less in real terms than in 2010. £28,199 then, £40,358 now: +43% in cash. Prices rose 60% (CPI, July to July).
Share this result
Image-ready panelActual pay against pay that matched CPI
£ at the timeBoth lines start at the same figure on 1 July 2010. The dashed line rises with CPI measured in July each year; the solid line is the published NJC rate from each 1 July. The shaded area is the yearly gap.
What that pay is worth in today's money
July 2026 pricesEach year's rate is multiplied by the CPI index for July 2026 divided by the index for that July. The line above the dashed marker means that year's pay would buy more than today's.
Award by award: did it beat prices?
Real change = award against CPI over the previous 12 months to JulyBiggest real-terms squeeze: 2011 (−4.3%). Best real-terms award: 2024 (+1.7%). Awards are agreed before the year's inflation is known, so the comparison looks backwards.
| Effective 1 July | Award | Pay before | Pay after | CPI in prior 12 months | Real change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 0% | £28,199 | £28,199 | +4.5% | −4.3% |
| 2012 | 1% | £28,199 | £28,481 | +2.5% | −1.4% |
| 2013 | 1% | £28,481 | £28,766 | +2.8% | −1.8% |
| 2014 | 1% | £28,766 | £29,054 | +1.6% | −0.6% |
| 2015 | 1% | £29,054 | £29,345 | +0.1% | +0.9% |
| 2016 | 1% | £29,345 | £29,638 | +0.6% | +0.4% |
| 2017 | 1% | £29,638 | £29,934 | +2.6% | −1.5% |
| 2018 | 2% | £29,934 | £30,533 | +2.5% | −0.5% |
| 2019 | 2% | £30,533 | £31,144 | +2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 2% | £31,144 | £31,767 | +1.1% | +0.9% |
| 2021 | 1.5% | £31,767 | £32,244 | +2.0% | −0.5% |
| 2022 | 7% | £32,244 | £34,501 | +10.1% | −2.8% |
| 2023 | 5% | £34,501 | £36,226 | +6.9% | −1.7% |
| 2024 | 4% | £36,226 | £37,675 | +2.2% | +1.7% |
| 2025 | 3.2% | £37,675 | £38,881 | +3.9% | −0.7% |
| 2026 | 3.8% | £38,881 | £40,358 | +2.8% | +1.0% |
n/s: the source page does not state a headline percentage; the pay figures are still the published rates. Every circular is listed under Sources.
Year by year
| 1 July | Basic pay | If matched CPI | Gap | Real terms | In today's money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | £28,199 | £28,199 | — | — | £45,125 |
| 2011 | £28,199 | £29,462 | −£1,263 | −4.3% | £43,190 |
| 2012 | £28,481 | £30,188 | −£1,707 | −5.7% | £42,573 |
| 2013 | £28,766 | £31,041 | −£2,275 | −7.3% | £41,818 |
| 2014 | £29,054 | £31,546 | −£2,492 | −7.9% | £41,560 |
| 2015 | £29,345 | £31,578 | −£2,233 | −7.1% | £41,934 |
| 2016 | £29,638 | £31,767 | −£2,129 | −6.7% | £42,100 |
| 2017 | £29,934 | £32,588 | −£2,654 | −8.1% | £41,449 |
| 2018 | £30,533 | £33,409 | −£2,876 | −8.6% | £41,240 |
| 2019 | £31,144 | £34,072 | −£2,928 | −8.6% | £41,246 |
| 2020 | £31,767 | £34,451 | −£2,684 | −7.8% | £41,609 |
| 2021 | £32,244 | £35,146 | −£2,902 | −8.3% | £41,399 |
| 2022 | £34,501 | £38,683 | −£4,182 | −10.8% | £40,246 |
| 2023 | £36,226 | £41,335 | −£5,109 | −12.4% | £39,547 |
| 2024 | £37,675 | £42,251 | −£4,576 | −10.8% | £40,237 |
| 2025 | £38,881 | £43,893 | −£5,012 | −11.4% | £39,972 |
| 2026 | £40,358 | £45,125 | −£4,767 | −10.6% | £40,358 |
Illustrative planning estimate based on published rules, not financial, legal, pension or tax advice. Your payroll record, contract and scheme administrator control your actual position.
What this calculator answers
Firefighter pay is set nationally by the National Joint Council for Local Authority Fire and Rescue Services. Each year it agrees a percentage increase that takes effect on 1 July, and prices keep moving in the meantime. Whether pay has "kept up" therefore depends on two choices: which year you start from and which measure of prices you use. This calculator lets you make both choices and shows every step, so you can check the arithmetic rather than take a headline on trust.
The calculation compares two paths from the same starting point. The first is the actual basic pay for your role on 1 July of each year, taken from the NJC pay tables. The second is that same starting pay if it had risen exactly in line with prices, using the July index level each year. The difference between them is the gap. The tool then turns the actual pay into today's money by multiplying each year's rate by the price index for July 2026 divided by the index for that July, which is how economists compare pay across years.
A worked example: the competent firefighter from 2010
A competent firefighter's national basic pay was £28,199 on 1 July 2010. It was frozen in 2010 and 2011 and rose 1% a year from 2012 to 2017, then 2% in each of 2018, 2019 and 2020, 1.5% in 2021, 7% in 2022, 5% in 2023, 4% in 2024, 3.2% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, reaching £40,358 on 1 July 2026. That is a cash rise of 43.1%.
Over the same period CPI rose from 89.3 in July 2010 to 142.9 in July 2026, a rise of 60.0%. Had the £28,199 tracked CPI it would now be £45,125, so actual pay is £4,767 a year lower, and in July 2026 prices the pay is 10.6% below its 2010 level. On the RPI measure the picture is starker: prices rose 87.4%, the equivalent pay would be £52,854 and the real-terms shortfall is 23.6%. Adding the yearly gaps for the sixteen full pay years from 2010 to June 2026 gives a cash earnings shortfall of £45,025 on CPI.
| Start (1 July) | Pay then | Pay now | CPI rise | Pay if matched CPI | Real-terms change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | £28,199 | £40,358 | +60.0% | £45,125 | −10.6% |
| 2015 | £29,345 | £40,358 | +42.9% | £41,934 | −3.8% |
| 2019 | £31,144 | £40,358 | +32.4% | £41,246 | −2.2% |
| 2021 | £32,244 | £40,358 | +28.4% | £41,399 | −2.5% |
| 2023 | £36,226 | £40,358 | +9.2% | £39,547 | +2.1% |
| 2025 | £38,881 | £40,358 | +2.8% | £39,972 | +1.0% |
The table shows why the start year matters so much. From 2010 pay is well behind. From 2023 it is slightly ahead, because the 2024 and 2026 awards beat the price rise in the preceding twelve months. Neither is "the" answer: the honest statement is that pay fell behind prices in the early 2010s and again in 2022 and 2023, then recovered part of the ground.
Award by award, 2010 to 2026
The per-award view compares each award with the price rise over the twelve months to the July it took effect. On CPI, the freezes of 2010 and 2011 lost 2.9% and 4.3% in real terms, the 1% awards of 2012 to 2014 and 2017 lost between 0.6% and 1.8% each, the 2015 and 2016 awards gained 0.9% and 0.4%, and the 2% awards of 2018 to 2020 were roughly level, at −0.5%, 0.0% and +0.9%. The 1.5% award of 2021 lost 0.5%. The 7% award in 2022 was the largest cash rise of the period, but CPI rose 10.1% in the year to July 2022, so it was still a real-terms fall of 2.8%. The 5% award of 2023 lost a further 1.7% against a 6.9% price rise. The 4% award of 2024 beat 2.2% inflation by 1.7%, the 3.2% award of 2025 lost 0.7% against 3.9%, and the 3.8% award of 2026 beat 2.8% inflation by 1.0%.
A comparison with the previous twelve months' inflation is one reasonable way to judge an award, but it is not the only one. Awards are agreed after the price data are known, and negotiators may look at forecasts, at other public-sector settlements or at recruitment and retention. The tool reports what happened; it does not say what should have happened.
Why CPI and why July
CPI, the Consumer Prices Index, is the Office for National Statistics' headline measure of inflation and the measure the Bank of England targets. The tool uses the "all items" index (series D7BT, 2015=100). RPI, the Retail Prices Index (series CHAW, January 1987=100), was the standard measure until 2013. ONS no longer designates it a National Statistic and discourages its use (see its note on the shortcomings of RPI), which is why CPI is the default. RPI is still widely quoted by unions and in some contracts, it generally runs higher, and so it is available as a switch.
Pay awards take effect on 1 July, so the July index is the natural comparison point. Awards are agreed once a year while prices move monthly, so pay is worth slightly more than the July figure just after an award and slightly less just before the next. That timing effect is not modelled. "Today's money" means July 2026 prices; the latest published month, August 2026, is 0.5% higher on CPI (143.6 against 142.9), and the difference is small enough not to change any conclusion on this page.
How the calculation is done
- Pay: the national basic annual pay for the role and stage on 1 July, from NJC Appendix A (or the FBU's reproduction of it for 2009 to 2021).
- Pay if it had matched inflation: the base-year pay multiplied by the July index of the year divided by the July index of the base year.
- Real-terms change: actual pay divided by that matched pay, minus one. It is the same as comparing pay in today's money with pay in the base year.
- Pay in today's money: each year's pay multiplied by the July 2026 index divided by that year's July index.
- Earnings shortfall: the sum, for each full pay year from the base year to June 2026, of matched pay minus actual pay. Each pay year uses the 1 July rate for the whole twelve months.
What is in the pay data, and what is not
The pay figures cover every firefighting role from Development Firefighter to Area Manager Competent B, from 1 July 2009 to 1 July 2026: 18 pay tables. The 2010 and 2011 tables are the same as 2009, because those were pay freezes. Rates before 2022 are as the FBU published them on its pay settlement pages, and 2022 onwards are read directly from the NJC circulars. The tool does not include the trainee firefighter rate, which was deleted in 2025, and it uses national rates only. London Fire Brigade uses its own scale, and other services can apply local terms, so check your own pay policy if you are outside the national scale.
It also uses basic pay only. Your actual earnings include overtime, on-call retainers, continual professional development payments, flexible duty supplements, allowances and pension accrual, none of which is in the comparison. The pay calculator and the pay report deal with total earnings and take-home pay.
Using the result well
If you are preparing for a pay discussion, a union meeting or a mortgage conversation, choose a base year for a reason you can explain, and quote the index and the month convention with the figure. "10.6% lower in real terms than July 2010 on CPI" is checkable. "Pay has lost a quarter of its value" is only true on RPI over a long horizon. The share panel produces an image with the headline and a two-line chart, and the summary text carries its sources, so anything you post or send can be traced back.
The back-pay calculator covers a different problem: what you are owed when an award is implemented after 1 July. The paid Pay History & Back-Pay Pack adds a multi-role comparison, a report built from your own career start year and pay path, back-pay scenarios and a printable briefing. For background on how awards are agreed read the FBU pay claim and NJC process, the history of firefighter pay rises and the 2025 against 2026 pay scales.
Common mistakes when comparing pay and inflation
- Mixing months. Comparing a July pay rate with an annual-average price index, or with December prices, shifts the answer by up to several percentage points in high-inflation years. This tool uses July to July.
- Choosing a flattering start year. Starting immediately after a large award, or immediately before a freeze, changes the result. Look at more than one base year.
- Ignoring the index. The same pay history is 10.6% behind on CPI and 23.6% behind on RPI from 2010. Say which one you used.
- Treating cash and real terms as the same thing. A 43% cash rise sounds large but was well below the 60% rise in prices over the same period.
- Treating basic pay as total pay. Overtime, allowances and pension change the wider picture.
Frequently asked questions
Has firefighter pay kept up with inflation?
Measured from July 2010, no. A competent firefighter's basic pay went from £28,199 to £40,358 (+43%) while CPI rose 60% over the same July-to-July period, so pay is 10.6% lower in real terms and about £4,767 a year below where it would be had it matched CPI. From 2015 the gap is smaller (3.8% on CPI) and from 2023 onwards awards have roughly matched CPI. The answer depends on the start year and the index, which is why the tool lets you change both.
Which inflation measure does the tool use?
The default is CPI (ONS series D7BT, 2015=100), the official headline measure. You can switch to RPI (ONS series CHAW). ONS no longer treats RPI as a National Statistic and discourages its use, but unions often quote it and it runs higher, so it is shown as a second view. Both are copied unchanged from the ONS release of 16 September 2026.
Why is July used for the price index?
NJC pay awards take effect on 1 July every year, so each award is compared with the index for July of the same year. That makes pay and prices line up at the same point in time. The tool expresses 'today's money' as July 2026 prices so the latest award equals its cash value; August 2026 is 0.5% higher on CPI.
Where does the pay data come from?
From the published NJC pay tables for firefighting roles: the circulars NJC/1/23, NJC/3/23, NJC/3/24, NJC/3/25 and NJC/2/26 for 2022 to 2026, and the FBU's pay settlement pages, which reproduce the NJC tables, for 2009 to 2021. Every source link is listed at the bottom of this page. Nothing is estimated.
Does this include London Fire Brigade and other local scales?
No. The tool uses the national NJC scale. London Fire Brigade and some other services apply awards to their own scales, so their pay history differs. Awards are one percentage for every pay point, so the real-terms percentage is similar for local scales that pass on the full award, but the cash amounts are not.
What does the 'earnings shortfall' mean?
For each full pay year from your base year to June 2026 the tool compares the basic pay you were on with the pay you would have been on had your base-year pay risen with prices, then adds up the differences. It counts the 1 July rate for the whole twelve months, ignores overtime and allowances, and is in cash at the time, not adjusted to today's money.
Does the tool include overtime, allowances or pension?
No, only basic annual pay. Overtime, on-call payments, CPD, flexible duty supplements and pension value all change the total picture and are outside the comparison. Use the free pay calculator to work from a salary to take-home pay.
Is this a prediction or advice?
No. It is a calculation from published figures about the past. It says nothing about what future awards will be, and it is not financial or legal advice. The FBU and the employers' side may draw different conclusions from the same figures, for example by choosing a different start year.
Sources and assumptions
- ONS: CPI INDEX 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100 (D7BT) and ONS: RPI All Items Index, Jan 1987=100 (CHAW). Release of 16 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026, July index values as held in
inflationData.ts. The next release is 21 October 2026. - NJC circulars: NJC/1/23 (2022), NJC/3/23 (2023), NJC/3/24 (2024), NJC/3/25 (2025), NJC/2/26 (2026).
- FBU pay settlement pages for 2009, 2012, 2018 and 2021; the same address pattern (
/pay-rates/pay-settlement-YEAR) holds every year from 2009 to 2021. - Assumptions: national NJC basic annual pay on 1 July; July index for each year; today's money is July 2026 prices; each pay year counts the 1 July rate for twelve months; percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Illustrative calculation from published figures, not advice. Where a source page does not state a year's headline percentage, the tool shows "n/s" and still uses the published pay rates.